Outcome hedging for businesses

If it can happen,
you can hedge it.

Backstop helps businesses use prediction markets to hedge against any outcome.

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What we do
Businesses are hedging on prediction markets — and making national news.
Backstop helps companies deploy those hedges: bold promotions with the downside covered, risk turned into a predictable cost.
The math

More revenue. Less variance.

Hedged promotions lift your best nights and supercharge sales. Hedges on weather and events protect your worst days. The cost becomes one fixed number you know up front.

Revenue up in every outcome
THE PROMO · USA vs BELGIUM · MONDAY
USA win$50 off × 15 tabs750 @ 50¢ = $375
Win by 2+$75 off × 30 tabs2,250 @ 17¢ = $383
Win by 3+$100 off × 45 tabs4,500 @ 7¢ = $315
TOTAL HEDGE: $1,073
$16k $8k $4k $0 $9.0k $12.4k $12.4k $12.4k $12.4k Typical Mon Draw / loss Win by 1 Win by 2 Win by 3+
Assumes the promo lifts a typical $9k Monday by 50% to $13.5k in sales. Whichever legs trigger, the market pays the credit dollar for dollar — so the night nets $13.5k minus the $1,073 hedge, ≈$12.4k, in all four scorelines. Credits come back as return visits, redeemed at margin.
Volatility out, stability in
THE HEDGE · SEASONAL BUSINESS · EXCESS RAIN
An outdoor-heavy business hedges rainy days across the season — when rain wipes a month, the payout fills the dip.
HIGH LOW RAINED-OUT MONTH · PAYOUT FILLS THE DIP JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV ━ Unhedged ━ With Backstop
Illustrative. Hedge payouts arrive in exactly the months the weather or the bracket goes against you, so revenue stops swinging on things you can’t control — for a small, fixed premium in the good months.
Team

Obsessive about getting the math right.

Zack Lawrence

Zack Lawrence

B.S. Mathematics & M.S. Computer Science, Stanford. Repeat founder.
Stanford University
Luis Rios

Luis Rios

Ph.D., Stanford. B.S., UC Berkeley.
Stanford University UC Berkeley
Get started

Your first hedge could be live this week.

Tell us the promotion you want to run or the risk you want hedged. We’ll walk you through every step personally.

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One short note when we launch a new hedge. No spam.

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